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Copper Is in a Full Bear Market
Source: Michael Ballanger 08/14/2024
Even though copper prices bottomed on Thursday, Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. still thinks Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is a Buy.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Copper prices bottomed on Thursday, August 8, right before the Sunday-Monday crash in the Nikkei and subsequent policy reversal by BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida, so any rallies from here, given the 25% pullback off the May 20 top at $5.199/lb., are going to be seen as bear market rallies.
Nevertheless, you can make a lot of money if you time these rallies properly, with the ideal strategy being ownership of the top copper producer in the world, which is Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Copper is now in a full-on bear market rally that could possibly tack on another $0.40/lb. from the current $4.03/lb. level at which it now stands, but what is critical is the MACD and MFI indicators where "buy signals" have just been triggered. MFI is coming off a deeply oversold condition, so the rebound looks to be fairly strong.
FCX is coming out of an oversold RSI reading (sub 30) that usually signals an impending turn, and both MACD and the MFI will show "buy signals" by tomorrow's opening. First stop for FCX is the 200-dma at $43.62 followed by the 50-dma at $47.27 and 100-dma at $48.70.
As for the call options, although the November $ 40's are more money, the breakeven for these is $45.70 for FCX, while the breakeven for the November $45 calls is $$47.36. There is certainly better leverage in the ...