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Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Odds: Treasury Yields Tumble, Yen Rallies As Traders Bet On Heavy Fed Rate Cuts
Global financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility as investors grow anxious about recession risks in the world’s largest economy and move away from riskier assets while seeking refuge in safe-haven investments.
The Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed dramatically lower by 13.47% overnight, ending the session at 31,078 points, fully wiping out year-to-date gains. This drop surpasses the 11% decline witnessed in October 2008 and marks the worst single-day tumble since Oct. 20, 1987, when the Nikkei 225 index fell by 14.9%.
The negative sentiment spread to Europe, with all major indices deep in the red. The Eurozone's Stoxx 50 index dropped 3.5% to 4,475, adding to the nearly 4.6% decline from the previous week. Banks such as Unicredit, Deutsche Bank, and ING led the losses, all down between 4.5% and 6.5%.
Treasury Yields Drop, Yen Takes A Revenge
Futures on major U.S. equity indices traded sharply lower in premarket trading. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down by 4.7%, and those on the S&P 500 decreased by 3.4%, with the latter on track for its worst session in almost two years.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, reflecting growing investor demand for safe assets and heightened bets on massive interest rate cuts.
After dropping by 50 basis points last week, the rate-sensitive U.S. two-year yields fell by a further 15 basis points on Monday, down to 3.72% — the lowest since March 2023. The 10-year ...