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Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To Lowest Level In Over 3 Years: Is July Rate Cut Possible?

Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday’s announcement of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, known as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, as it could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts and provide relief to risky assets after this week’s sharp declines. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release key inflation data, along with figures on personal income and spending. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% and exceeding the 2% forecast, advance estimates revealed Thursday. Notably, the PCE price index indicated a 2.6% annualized growth for the quarter, down from 3.4%, suggesting easing inflation pressures. Markets fully price in a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market-implied odds for next week’s meeting show a 93% chance of no change in interest rates. It’s highly unlikely the Fed will lower interest rates this month, even in ...