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Barron's GE’s New Power Generation Spinoff Gives 2025 Guidance. What It Means for Its Stock.

GE Vernova hosts a coming-out party in New York City on Wednesday.

GE is about to split into two businesses—one dedicated to aircraft engines and the other to power generation. GE Vernova is GE’s gas power, wind turbine, and electricity-grid businesses.

Investors can expect to hear more details about how management plans to lead the energy transition away from fossil fuels—profitably.

To start the day, Vernova started with some numbers, reiterating 2024 financial guidance and giving investors a look into 2025.

For 2024, GE Vernova expects 2024 sales of $34 billion to $35 billion, up from 2023 sales of $33.2 billion. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, margins should be ”mid-single digits, toward the higher end of the range.” That implies Ebitda in the range of $2.2 billion.

For 2025, Vernova expects “mid-single digit” sales growth and “high-single digit” Ebitda margins. That implies roughly $3.1 billion in Ebitda.

Free cash flow is expected to come in between $1.2 billion and $1.8 billion, up from an expected range of $0.7 billion and $1.1 billion for 2023.

Wall Street will now take guidance, and its estimates, to comment on how Vernova should be valued as an independent company. Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu values Vernova at about 8.5 times her 2025 estimated Ebitda of $3.2 billion, or about $27 billion. That will work out to a market capitalization of about $31 billion since GE Vernova will have about $4 billion in cash and no debt to start its life as an independent company.

That works out to roughly $28 per GE share. Investors are getting one Vernova share for every four GE shares held so those numbers translate to a stand-alone stock price of about $112.

“The energy transition is the next investment supercycle, and today we are excited to share GE Vernova’s value creation strategy. With a vast installed base, growing recurring revenue from high-margin services, and a significant backlog,” said Vernova CEO Scott Strazik in a news release. ”GE Vernova provides a unique scope and scale of solutions to serve the world’s most impactful electricity providers.”