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The stock market’s return will be minus 3.3% a year over the next decade, says this ‘single greatest predictor’

This month we’ve received both good and bad news from the “single greatest predictor of future stock market returns.” It is a contrarian indicator, with higher equity allocations associated with lower subsequent market returns, and vice versa. According to a simple econometric model I constructed that bases its predictions on the historical correlation between the indicator and the stock market, the S&P 500’s real total return over the next decade will be minus 3.3% annualized.
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